Thru 7 Games - 2014 v 2017

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10-23-2017, 09:14 AM
BrunswickDawg

Thru 7 Games - 2014 v 2017

Ok - as everyone knows, I'm the resident Fitz defender. As Dawg61 will point out, I get my back up and jump to his defense at the least little thing. Something has bugged me the last 2 weeks on Twitter and I think it needed a little deeper look. The constant harping on drops vs. "inaccurate throws".

After 2 bad performances against UGA and AU, we all know that Fitz still needs time to develop and isn't where many would like him to be. However, this turned into some real twitter rage after BYU that continued after the Kentucky game. In particular, I'm going to call out Brett Hudson at the Commercial Dispatch for feeding this by breaking down every incompletion on twitter the last 2 weeks and judging if it is the receivers fault or Fitz's fault. We have 2 blowout wins in a row, and (as usual) someone covering our team are spending their time feeding a narrative that serves only to stir the pot.

So, I decide to compare 2017 to 2014 through 7 games. I used 2014 since it was Dak's Junior year and Fitz is a Junior this year, and it also seems to be where many people believe Fitz should have evolved to through this point in his career.

2014
Dak - 114 of 189 (60.3) for 1,694 (14 y/rec) 15 TDs, 5 INTs - 664 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 1 fumble lost - 13 sacks for -76 yards

2017
Fitz - 107 of 188 (56.9) for 1,179 (11 y/rec) 11 TDs, 7 INTs - 561 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 0 fumbles - 2 sacks for -9 yards

Obviously, I didn't look at more advance metrics which I am sure could be used to pick apart more nuances and only used basic stats. The stats and production are incredibly similar - with the biggest difference in yards per reception. But, here is my question - Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

Discuss
10-23-2017, 09:23 AM
ShotgunDawg

Dak's numbers look better me. Are these really close?

Dak appears to be about two games ahead.

Doesn't hurt that Dak had Bear, Ross, Fred Brown, & Malcolm Johnson.

If you want to blame any one thing, blame Billy G & Sallach for allowing the talent levels at their positions to significantly regress
10-23-2017, 09:27 AM
vv83

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

Discuss

Because 7-0 vs 5-2
10-23-2017, 09:29 AM
vv83

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

Dak's numbers look better me. Are these really close?

Dak appears to be about two games ahead.

Doesn't hurt that Dak had Bear, Ross, Fred Brown, & Malcolm Johnson.

If you want to blame any one thing, blame Billy G & Sallach for allowing the talent levels at their positions to significantly regress

I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards
10-23-2017, 09:34 AM
Johnson85

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Ok - as everyone knows, I'm the resident Fitz defender. As Dawg61 will point out, I get my back up and jump to his defense at the least little thing. Something has bugged me the last 2 weeks on Twitter and I think it needed a little deeper look. The constant harping on drops vs. "inaccurate throws".

After 2 bad performances against UGA and AU, we all know that Fitz still needs time to develop and isn't where many would like him to be. However, this turned into some real twitter rage after BYU that continued after the Kentucky game. In particular, I'm going to call out Brett Hudson at the Commercial Dispatch for feeding this by breaking down every incompletion on twitter the last 2 weeks and judging if it is the receivers fault or Fitz's fault. We have 2 blowout wins in a row, and (as usual) someone covering our team are spending their time feeding a narrative that serves only to stir the pot.

So, I decide to compare 2017 to 2014 through 7 games. I used 2014 since it was Dak's Junior year and Fitz is a Junior this year, and it also seems to be where many people believe Fitz should have evolved to through this point in his career.

2014
Dak - 114 of 189 (60.3) for 1,694 (14 y/rec) 15 TDs, 5 INTs - 664 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 1 fumble lost - 13 sacks for -76 yards

2017
Fitz - 107 of 188 (56.9) for 1,179 (11 y/rec) 11 TDs, 7 INTs - 561 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 0 fumbles - 2 sacks for -9 yards

Obviously, I didn't look at more advance metrics which I am sure could be used to pick apart more nuances and only used basic stats. The stats and production are incredibly similar - with the biggest difference in yards per reception. But, here is my question - Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

Discuss

The difference is not negligible. That's a big difference. But, Dak had much better recovers to work with. Also had a better Oline and a better rb (although the difference at those groups aren't like the huge gap at the wide receiver position).

All that said, people expecting fitz to be where Dak was his jr year are never going to be happy with fitz. Even though he got to play a lot last year at qb compared to DAK's RS So year, that's just not a realistic expectation for somebody that played one year of HS qb. Hell, it wasn't really realistic to expect it of Dak. It just usually doesn't work it that way.
10-23-2017, 09:44 AM
drunkernhelldawg

In 2014, our tough games were after the first seven. This year, we've already been dominated by two top ten caliber teams. I know that the teams we beat in 2014 were ranked highly at the team, but they did not turn out to be as good as advertised. AU and UG are that good. Personally, I believe that either of them could go toe to toe with Bama. I know LSU beat AU. But they've got a great defense and a good running game.
10-23-2017, 09:52 AM
Tbonewannabe

The UGA team that Fitz played would have probably been the best team Dak saw all year (Bama). LSU might end up being about the same and Auburn about the same if not a game better. We might not have a receiver or TE that would be in the rotation on the 2014 team. Mixon and Gray might have gotten blowout reps and maybe Thomas if he was used correctly.

It says something when the 3rd WR on that team (Fred Brown) would be head and shoulders the best WR on our current team. I think the Oline is probably close to equal and the RBs have better depth but JRob is also better. You are also comparing Fitz to the greatest football player regardless of position to ever put on the Maroon and White. Gene Stallings was a shitty coach compared to Bear Bryant but he still won a National Title and a lot of games. Fitz is probably on pace to be the 2nd best QB to play at MSU but comparing him to Dak isn't exactly fair.
10-23-2017, 09:57 AM
Political Hack

Fitz has done a great job this year. He's an option QB that Mullen has developed into a balanced QB. That takes time and reps. We have to invest time, during games, developing the passing game. He's behind Dak as a passer, but I think he's ahead of him as a runner. Let's not forget who they're throwing to either. I bet if you take away Bear's back shoulder those numbers would be very close.
10-23-2017, 10:02 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by vv83

I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards

Interesting point. Key has played in all 7 games - is 8 of 19 for 66 and 1 TD with 177 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
In 2014, Dam. Williams played in 3 of the first 7 games, was 9 of 16 for 79 and 1 TD with 27 rushing yards and 0 TDs. He only played in 2 games after that - UTM and Vandy. So yes, Dak got more on field time than Fitz thru 7 games. Of course, not all of his games were blow outs like this year.
10-23-2017, 10:17 AM
Really Clark?

Quote:

Originally Posted by vv83

I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards

Fitz has not played a full game this season.
10-23-2017, 10:46 AM
Homedawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Really Clark?

Fitz has not played a full game this season.

True but yards per reception favors dak big time and on equal number of throws.
10-23-2017, 10:49 AM
drunkernhelldawg

Dak is so good that he's changed the way the NFL looks at rookie QB's. Fitz is a damned impressive aspirer to that level.
10-23-2017, 10:54 AM
CadaverDawg

Fitz is not as good as Dak, but that's a damn high bar. Doesn't mean he isn't a good QB. Has he had some inaccurate moments, sure....but the biggest difference btwn Dak & Fitz is Dak passed in HS & Dak had 10 times the receiver advantage. Fitz has done well, and is likely the 2nd best QB in our history when he leaves. People bashing Fitz are dumb, and are also such a small % of our fan base that they shouldn't be worth mentioning. That's my thoughts
10-23-2017, 11:11 AM
StatesboroBlues

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

Fitz is not as good as Dak, but that's a damn high bar. Doesn't mean he isn't a good QB. Has he had some inaccurate moments, sure....but the biggest difference btwn Dak & Fitz is Dak passed in HS & Dak had 10 times the receiver advantage. Fitz has done well, and is likely the 2nd best QB in our history when he leaves. People bashing Fitz are dumb, and are also such a small % of our fan base that they shouldn't be worth mentioning. That's my thoughts

Agree...
10-23-2017, 11:19 AM
Jack Lambert

Quote:

Originally Posted by Political Hack

Fitz has done a great job this year. He's an option QB that Mullen has developed into a balanced QB. That takes time and reps. We have to invest time, during games, developing the passing game. He's behind Dak as a passer, but I think he's ahead of him as a runner. Let's not forget who they're throwing to either. I bet if you take away Bear's back shoulder those numbers would be very close.

Fitz has made some bad throws but there have been a lot of drop passes that Dak's WR would not have dropped. This has to be hurting his stats. How about that attempted pass to the TE when he tripe? Perfect pass, beat the DB and was wide open, unbelievable.
10-23-2017, 01:03 PM
parabrave

One big diff between the two is how Dak goes through his checkdowns/progressions and Fitz is usually going to his first assignment. This is most probably from Dak having been a HS QB for 3 years while Fitz only had one. Plus Dak had better receivers to go to.
10-23-2017, 01:39 PM
Gutter Cobreh

Fitz ranks 72nd in the country in completion percentage and 93rd in yards per pass attempt. That's not good to say the least. The WR drops shouldn't be blamed for all of that as Fitz does not have touch or accuracy with deep balls at this point in his development.

Also, while Dak was a great QB - I don't remember him being a great passer in 14. Not sure why you chose him for comparison other than the school connection.
10-23-2017, 01:51 PM
Commercecomet24

Think about this for a minute. What we would be saying about Fitz if he had played before Dak.
10-23-2017, 01:55 PM
Really Clark?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh

Fitz ranks 72nd in the country in completion percentage and 93rd in yards per pass attempt. That's not good to say the least. The WR drops shouldn't be blamed for all of that as Fitz does not have touch or accuracy with deep balls at this point in his development.

Also, while Dak was a great QB - I don't remember him being a great passer in 14. Not sure why you chose him for comparison other than the school connection.

Fitz has to keep developing, no question, but with so many bad drops by the WR this year it has effected this percentage and INT's (remember at least 2 were completely on the WR). I don't anyone would disagree that the WR have dropped at least 10 sure catches this season. That would put Fitz at 44 in the country at 62.2% completion percentage. Changes perception when you factor personnel issues not related to an inaccurate throw.
10-23-2017, 02:01 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Think about this for a minute. What we would be saying about Fitz if he had played before Dak.

Same as Relf.
10-23-2017, 02:12 PM
Cooterpoot

I can remember complaints about Dak not being the most accurate passer and not having a big arm. But Fitz isn't the pocket passer Dak was. Not close.
10-23-2017, 02:15 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

Same as Relf.

Really? I don't believe Relf ever accounted for 37 Td's and 3800 total yards in a season. Fitz is gonna wind up with numbers second only to the greatest QB to ever play at State. If Fitz played before Dak our perception of him would be totally different.
10-23-2017, 03:26 PM
Gutter Cobreh

Quote:

Originally Posted by Really Clark?

Fitz has to keep developing, no question, but with so many bad drops by the WR this year it has effected this percentage and INT's (remember at least 2 were completely on the WR). I don't anyone would disagree that the WR have dropped at least 10 sure catches this season. That would put Fitz at 44 in the country at 62.2% completion percentage. Changes perception when you factor personnel issues not related to an inaccurate throw.

Flawed example. You act like those other 71 QBs ahead of Fitz in the rankings have WRs that have caught every ball thrown to them. Every QB has drops, regardless of how good they and the receivers are.
10-23-2017, 03:32 PM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Really? I don't believe Relf ever accounted for 37 Td's and 3800 total yards in a season. Fitz is gonna wind up with numbers second only to the greatest QB to ever play at State. If Fitz played before Dak our perception of him would be totally different.

Relf only accounted for 4,872 yards and 37 TDs in his career. Fitz has 19 games to play.
10-23-2017, 03:39 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Relf only accounted for 4,872 yards and 37 TDs in his career. Fitz has 19 games to play.

Yeah if Fitz stays healthy he will account for over 100 TD's and over 10,000 yards. That's pretty freaking serious numbers there!
10-23-2017, 03:49 PM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Think about this for a minute. What we would be saying about Fitz if he had played before Dak.

He would be compared to John Bond. There would be talk of him breaking all the MSU-QB records and potentially being the greatest MSU QB ever.
10-23-2017, 03:54 PM
Really Clark?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh

Flawed example. You act like those other 71 QBs ahead of Fitz in the rankings have WRs that have caught every ball thrown to them. Every QB has drops, regardless of how good they and the receivers are.

Everybody does have drops but we are not talking about every drop from our WR that were good accurate throws that is above the average for teams. Heck in one game there was 6 legitimate drops from the WR. An extra 10 completions is not unreasonable and would still raise his rankings if you chart every QB.
10-23-2017, 04:07 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Really Clark?

Everybody does have drops but we are not talking about every drop from our WR that were good accurate throws that is above the average for teams. Heck in one game there was 6 legitimate drops from the WR. An extra 10 completions is not unreasonable and would still raise his rankings if you chart every QB.

Not including that Fitz has a small window to put the ball because our WRs get zero separation from a DB. We also don't have a speed guy that can take the top of the defense. It is rare that anyone gets behind the defense without some kind of bust. We just don't have a straight burner. I have seen Donald Gray get by a couple of times but if he really was a sub 4.4 guy then he would be doing it every game and not just against La Tech or BYU.
10-23-2017, 04:08 PM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maroonthirteen

He would be compared to John Bond. There would be talk of him breaking all the MSU-QB records and potentially being the greatest MSU QB ever.

Interesting take. When the "Fitz parties too much" rumor was floating around, I reminded people that Bond would hop in his Corvette with a case of beer after games in Jackson and take the party to Athens for the weekend (at least according to a story I heard).

Fitz is on pace to have about 4,900 career passing yards and 2600 rushing yards - roughly 7,500 total yards - at the end of this season.

He would need only 1,400 yards his SR season to pass Madkin for 2nd in career yardage.
He has a shot at being our 2nd leading rusher in history after THIS season - potentially only trailing Boobie by a little over 600 yards going into next year. Barring injury, he will be our career leading rusher.

He won't catch Dak in passing yards - but we are witnessing something from a modern athletics standpoint that is incredibly impressive.
10-23-2017, 04:13 PM
Tbonewannabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Interesting take. When the "Fitz parties too much" rumor was floating around, I reminded people that Bond would hop in his Corvette with a case of beer after games in Jackson and take the party to Athens for the weekend (at least according to a story I heard).

Fitz is on pace to have about 4,900 career passing yards and 2600 rushing yards - roughly 7,500 total yards - at the end of this season.

He would need only 1,400 yards his SR season to pass Madkin for 2nd in career yardage.
He has a shot at being our 2nd leading rusher in history after THIS season - potentially only trailing Boobie by a little over 600 yards going into next year. Barring injury, he will be our career leading rusher.

He won't catch Dak in passing yards - but we are witnessing something from a modern athletics standpoint that is incredibly impressive.

He is one of the best pure total running QBs I have seen. He can not only drag a few guys for 5 yards into the endzone but he can also hit the corner and run for 70 yards. The guy is a NFL athlete.
10-23-2017, 09:58 PM
Maroonthirteen

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Interesting take. When the "Fitz parties too much" rumor was floating around, I reminded people that Bond would hop in his Corvette with a case of beer after games in Jackson and take the party to Athens for the weekend (at least according to a story I heard).

Fitz is on pace to have about 4,900 career passing yards and 2600 rushing yards - roughly 7,500 total yards - at the end of this season.

He would need only 1,400 yards his SR season to pass Madkin for 2nd in career yardage.
He has a shot at being our 2nd leading rusher in history after THIS season - potentially only trailing Boobie by a little over 600 yards going into next year. Barring injury, he will be our career leading rusher.

He won't catch Dak in passing yards - but we are witnessing something from a modern athletics standpoint that is incredibly impressive.

Regardless of his flaws, he is one the best QBs In our history. Or at least in the 37 years I have been watching.
10-23-2017, 11:32 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Really? I don't believe Relf ever accounted for 37 Td's and 3800 total yards in a season. Fitz is gonna wind up with numbers second only to the greatest QB to ever play at State. If Fitz played before Dak our perception of him would be totally different.

This wasn't a dig at Fitz.
10-23-2017, 11:34 PM
parabrave

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

Interesting take. When the "Fitz parties too much" rumor was floating around, I reminded people that Bond would hop in his Corvette with a case of beer after games in Jackson and take the party to Athens for the weekend (at least according to a story I heard).

Fitz is on pace to have about 4,900 career passing yards and 2600 rushing yards - roughly 7,500 total yards - at the end of this season.

He would need only 1,400 yards his SR season to pass Madkin for 2nd in career yardage.
He has a shot at being our 2nd leading rusher in history after THIS season - potentially only trailing Boobie by a little over 600 yards going into next year. Barring injury, he will be our career leading rusher.

He won't catch Dak in passing yards - but we are witnessing something from a modern athletics standpoint that is incredibly impressive.

I remember that it was a firebird at one time.
10-23-2017, 11:45 PM
BiscuitEater

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh

Flawed example. You act like those other 71 QBs ahead of Fitz in the rankings have WRs that have caught every ball thrown to them. Every QB has drops, regardless of how good they and the receivers are.

Errr .. how many of those 71 QBs with better % ALSO have 561 yards rushing and 9 TDs on the ground?
10-23-2017, 11:59 PM
Commercecomet24

Quote:

Originally Posted by parabrave

This wasn't a dig at Fitz.

It just sounded that way. I must have misunderstood. I liked Relf too cause he kicked unm butt! Our qb level has definitely been raised since Dan been here.
10-24-2017, 07:34 AM
BrunswickDawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

It just sounded that way. I must have misunderstood. I liked Relf too cause he kicked unm butt! Our qb level has definitely been raised since Dan been here.

Relf did kick butt - however it was on a very limited basis. He will always be remembered as a giant killer. But, he really was a TE playing QB - which is why it took him almost 2 years to pass Tyson Lee on the depth chart (no offense to Lee - he had no fear and was a warrior who got the max out of his size and talent just like Holloway). I've wondered if Relf had been able redshirt and work his way up into the system how much better he might have been.
10-24-2017, 06:05 PM
yjnkdawg

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadaverDawg

Fitz is not as good as Dak, but that's a damn high bar. Doesn't mean he isn't a good QB. Has he had some inaccurate moments, sure....but the biggest difference btwn Dak & Fitz is Dak passed in HS & Dak had 10 times the receiver advantage. Fitz has done well, and is likely the 2nd best QB in our history when he leaves. People bashing Fitz are dumb, and are also such a small % of our fan base that they shouldn't be worth mentioning. That's my thoughts

Fitz may end up as the 2nd best quarterback in our history, but if he stays healthy he has a good opportunity to become the all time SEC Leader for a quarterbacks in rushing yardage for a career. That's above Manziel, Bond and a lot of other top quarterbacks who were in a triple option or other type run based offenses. I agree CD the bashing by some is pathetic.