What will come first?

Ole Miss returning to the NCAA Tournament or the US Mens Soccer Team playing in another World Cup?

As Coach and a few know, I'm a bit of a numbers nerd. I thought I would dive deeper into our NCAA chances.

First and foremost, that Vanderbilt loss hurt bad. It basically left zero room for error. We could have lost to anyone else on our schedule besides Vanderbilt or Ole Miss and been alright. Now we have to win.

Statistically, here is what we are looking at in 10,000 simulations.

22% chance of beating A&M
67% chance of beating South Carolina
43% chance of beating Tennessee
41% chance of beating LSU

That's what the numbers say, at least. For you budding statisticians, that is a 2.6% chance of going 4-0. If we do manage to go 4-0, our RPI would be #45-#48. Losing to Texas A&M but winning out puts us #53-#56. That is a big difference because the highest RPI of any Power 6 team ever left out of the NCAAT is #49.

Going back to the 4-0 method, we would have an 87% chance of being the No. 4 seed or higher in the SEC Tournament, which gives us a double bye. It also would require the NCAA to pass us and select four teams under us in the standings. Given that a "pass and select 3" has only happened one time in the history of the tournament, and it was before the 68-team field, I am pretty confident that a 4-0 finish would get us a bid, with us trying to play ourselves out of Dayton at the SEC Tournament.

But let's look at the 3-1 scenario. 3-1 would likely put us the No. 5 or No. 6 seed as a 10-8 team, matching us up against one of the Wednesday game winners. Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Georgia seem to be the most likely there. We would obviously want Georgia or South Carolina.

So lets say we lose to A&M and win out. We're 10-8, and we play South Carolina again on Thursday. A win there puts us right on the edge - #49-#51. Probably too close for comfort, but possibly in. Another win, against probable Arkansas, Missouri would do it in this scenario. Let's use Missouri as an example. Beating Mizzou in the quarterfinals would raise our RPI to the 45-48 range. A little safer, but we still have another game to play. Best case scenario it would be a loss to Auburn, which would drop us back to 49-51.

TLDR: We need to go 4-0. Going 3-1 if the loss is to A&M could make it interesting with a couple W's in St. Louis.

Good stuff.

Tuesday?s game against Aggie is so huge. I think we beat USCe and Tenn at home.

I do not think we win at aTm Tuesday. With that said, I am not sure your simulators and ESPN BPI take into consideration aTm is really hurting in the backcourt, which just so happens is our strength

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by curmudgeon

Ole Miss returning to the NCAA Tournament or the US Mens Soccer Team playing in another World Cup?

As Coach and a few know, I'm a bit of a numbers nerd. I thought I would dive deeper into our NCAA chances.

First and foremost, that Vanderbilt loss hurt bad. It basically left zero room for error. We could have lost to anyone else on our schedule besides Vanderbilt or Ole Miss and been alright. Now we have to win.

Statistically, here is what we are looking at in 10,000 simulations.

22% chance of beating A&M
67% chance of beating South Carolina
43% chance of beating Tennessee
41% chance of beating LSU

That's what the numbers say, at least. For you budding statisticians, that is a 2.6% chance of going 4-0. If we do manage to go 4-0, our RPI would be #45-#48. Losing to Texas A&M but winning out puts us #53-#56. That is a big difference because the highest RPI of any Power 6 team ever left out of the NCAAT is #49.

Going back to the 4-0 method, we would have an 87% chance of being the No. 4 seed or higher in the SEC Tournament, which gives us a double bye. It also would require the NCAA to pass us and select four teams under us in the standings. Given that a "pass and select 3" has only happened one time in the history of the tournament, and it was before the 68-team field, I am pretty confident that a 4-0 finish would get us a bid, with us trying to play ourselves out of Dayton at the SEC Tournament.

But let's look at the 3-1 scenario. 3-1 would likely put us the No. 5 or No. 6 seed as a 10-8 team, matching us up against one of the Wednesday game winners. Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Georgia seem to be the most likely there. We would obviously want Georgia or South Carolina.

So lets say we lose to A&M and win out. We're 10-8, and we play South Carolina again on Thursday. A win there puts us right on the edge - #49-#51. Probably too close for comfort, but possibly in. Another win, against probable Arkansas, Missouri would do it in this scenario. Let's use Missouri as an example. Beating Mizzou in the quarterfinals would raise our RPI to the 45-48 range. A little safer, but we still have another game to play. Best case scenario it would be a loss to Auburn, which would drop us back to 49-51.

TLDR: We need to go 4-0. Going 3-1 if the loss is to A&M could make it interesting with a couple W's in St. Louis.

---

Which is what smoothness and I said earlier. 11-7 to dance. And that's wo a one and done. But thanks for statistical analysis

It's hard to simulate for injuries and suspensions with any degree of certainty. I agree that I think we have a better than 22% chance, but I don't know how to quantify it.

As I pointed out, we are a couple of last second threes and a blown 13 point lead against Auburn from leading the conference with two weeks to go. I guarantee you won't find a #5 or #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament happy about having us in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msstate7

I do not think we win at aTm Tuesday. With that said, I am not sure your simulators and ESPN BPI take into consideration aTm is really hurting in the backcourt, which just so happens is our strength

---

I don’t want to jinx it, but since Howland has been here, we have always played aTm tough.

Here's a simple way to look at it.

If we go 4-0, we're likely in.

Every loss in the final four games we would need to win 2 games in the SEC Tournament to get back in the picture.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Homedawg

Which is what smoothness and I said earlier. 11-7 to dance. And that's wo a one and done. But thanks for statistical analysis

---

If we go 11-7 and finish 2 or 3 in the SEC, I am not sure one and done in sec tourney keeps us out.